Title: Fertility Control and Intergenerational Upward Mobility: Evidence from China's One-Child-Policy
Speaker: Xiaoou Liu , Associate Professor, Renmin University of China
Host: Yujian Yu, Associate professor, RIEM
Time: 14:00-15:30, May 12, Friday
Venue: H501, Liulin Campus
Abstract: This paper assesses the causality between the one child policy (OCP) in China and intergenerational upward mobility in occupations. We apply a regression discontinuity design on a cross-sectional micro-level dataset from 2010-2013. The results show that the OCP leads to a 7 to 11% increase in incidences of upward mobility for cohorts born after June 1983. Considering that the average incidence of upward mobility across the full sample is 29.4%, the estimated effect is substantial. We further test two possible channels through which the OCP affects mobility. The evidence in this study shows that observed upward mobility is caused by a reduction in the population size of rural females. Although the analysis does not find strong evidence of upward mobility affecting self-reported happiness, the marriage market is found to be significantly affected by the OCP through a reduction in the number of female births and the rising social status of surviving females in urban area.