【经管院每周系列讲座第297期】The Chinese Savings Rate: Productivity, Old-Age Support, and Demographics

2016-06-06

Abstract: In this paper, we show that a general equilibrium model that properly captures the role of family support, changes in demographics and the productivity growth rate is capable of generating changes in the national saving rate in China that mimic the data well. Our results suggest that most of the increase in the saving rate between 1980 and 2010 is due to the interaction between the decline in the fertility rate due to the one-child policy and the shortcomings of the old-age support programs, especially against the long-term care risks, provided by the government in China. Changes in the productivity growth rate account for the fluctuations in the saving rate during this period.

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