【经管院每周系列讲座第280期】 Too Early or Too Late: What Do We Learn from a 30-Year Two-child Policy Experiment

2015-11-25

Title: Too Early or Too Late: What Do We Learn from a 30-Year Two-child Policy Experiment   Speaker: Fei Wang, Renmin University of China Host: Wei Xiao, Associate professor, RIEM Time: 14:30-16:00, Nov.27, Friday Venue: Yide H513, Liulin Campus Abstract: We look into a 30-year two-child policy experiment in Yicheng, Shanxi to examine its impact on crude birth rate, aiming to help evaluate the potential effects of the national two-child policy announced in October 2015, and offer suggestion on prospective policy adjustment. We adopt a synthetic control approach which allows us to conduct a rigorous counterfactual analysis. We fail to find any short-term impact of two-child policy in Yicheng before the 1990s. In the long run, our estimation suggests that the two-child policy raised crude birth rate in Yicheng from 12.9 to 15.2 per 1000 people in 2000, and from 8.6 to 10.6 per 1000 people in 2010, which is fairly modest as compared to some official predictions.

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