近期，我院夏一鸣老师与Alex Armand（新里斯本大学教授）、Pedro Carneiro（伦敦大学学院教授）和 Federico Tagliati（西班牙国家银行研究员）合作的论文《Can subsidized employment tackle long-term unemployment? Experimental evidence from North Macedonia（补贴性就业能否解决长期失业问题？——来自北马其顿的实验证据）》正式刊发于发展经济学顶级期刊 Journal of Development Economics（JDE）。

研究在北马其顿开展大规模随机实验，评估“临时工资补贴”对弱势长期失业者的作用。项目为雇主提供首年 50% 的工资补贴并全额承担培训费用：求职者先与岗位匹配，再随机获得面试资格，最终由雇主决定是否录用。基于三年半的行政跟踪数据，结果显示：获得面试机会者进入正规就业的概率提高 14 个百分点，累计受雇时长增加 85%，表明补贴不仅带来“立竿见影”的岗位创造，更产生了显著而持久的人力资本效应。

This study experimentally assesses the effects of temporary wage subsidies on employment in North Macedonia. The target group consists of vulnerable unemployed individuals participating in an employment program that provides employers with a subsidy covering half of the wage payments during the first year of employment, as well as training expenses. Applicants are initially matched to job openings and then randomly selected for job interviews with employers, who decide whether to hire them under the program’s conditions. Using administrative records, we find that being selected for an interview results in a 14-percentage-point increase in the probability of being employed in the formal economy 3.5 years after the start of the program, and an 85% increase in employment duration.